| Market thoughts and Amazon December Outlook |
| Saturday, 28 November 2009 16:08 |
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As investors look back at this week’s Dubai debacle, many wonder what implications this may have on the future of global credit markets. Frankly, the impact and fallout will be negated in the long term more than likely. Dubai World, which manages investments for the Dubai government, hasn’t actually defaulted on their debt; they are simply asking for a standstill until they can re-negotiate short-term debt coming due. That, combined with the fact that a bailout from the UAE governments is imamate should total default loom, will most likely lead this to be a bleep in the grand scheme of things a year from now. North American bank exposure is limited to Citigroup for the most part, which has about $2 billion in exposure. Citigroup’s stock on Friday pushed down less than 3% from this news. The DOW, which gapped down nearly -250 points at the open Friday, rallied to close down only -154 points. Expect next week to bring a short squeeze for the overzealous bears that jumped the gun Friday and positioned themselves for a large drawdown in equities. Most likely, news will leak out next week that Dubai has re-structured the debt with creditors. This, of course, will send investors into a frenzy as the bulls begin bidding up prices and bears are forced to cover their shorts, further pushing up prices. While limited exposure is always the best bet, positioning yourself long for next week seems to be a highly-probable place to be. Personally, I have used this pullback to buy the dip in Amazon. In the last minute of trading Friday afternoon, I went long AMZN December 140 calls. Amazon, since their blowout earnings in October that sent the stock from $95 to$ 120 per share overnight, has since drifted higher before finding some resistance at the $133 level. Amazon is the leader in online shopping hands down in my opinion. Expect this holiday to be another successful season for Amazon and for investors to pile into the stock on an upgrade or positive announcement from the company at some point this month. $140 per share is a very likely price target for the company between now and December option expiration. |
